Table of Contents
Introduction
After the last 20 years, optimism that followed the conclusion of the Cold War has gradually worn out. The optimistic prognoses regarding the worldwide success of liberal democracy have been replaced with the worries over the restoration of the authoritarianism and the decline of democratic standards. Global freedom scores continue to drop with monitors pointing at the diminishing civic space, undermined checks and balances, and populism. Such a trend is not limited to a particular area. Europe-Asia: Latin America-Africa Governments are becoming increasingly illiberal as long-established democracies begin to rot internally. The trends and reasons behind this two-sided process have become critical to the researcher, policy makers and concerned citizens.
Trends of Authoritarian Revival.
The resurgence of authoritarianism today is in form subtler than the traditional coup d etat. The powers of legislatures and the courts are more and more concentrated in the hands of rulers in many cases explaining their actions by the national security, economic reform or anti-corruption campaigns. Emergency powers, which were at one time exceptional, become long-lasting, thus changing the balance in the constitution. They have regular elections but it is playing on a skewed field with gerrymandering, control over the media, disqualification of their opponents and the abuse of state resources. Such competitive forms of authoritarian regimes keep the semblance of democracy but empty out its content. Curtailments on civil liberties are gradual as well. Freedom of the press is undermined by the governments coercing independent media, the civil society is intimidated or limited by legal and economic means, and the freedom of assembly is suppressed. These tactics are improved with new technologies. Facial recognition and big-data analytics combined with digital surveillance are also enabling regimes to spy on citizens on a scale never seen before, even as coordinated campaigns of disinformation are falsifying the language of the population both domestically and internationally.
Democratic Backsliding Trends.
Democratic backsliding, which is connected, works in another way. It is not necessarily sudden and extreme but takes place within officially democratic structures. Constitutions are preserved on paper but norms unwritten like independence of judiciary, respect of opposition and non-partisan enforcement of law are eroded internally. This process is polarized and populized. Leaders are portrayed to be the only voice of the people that fights corrupt elites, nullifying their opponents and eroding pluralism. The monopoly of the media and online echo chambers decrease the variety of information, which makes false information all the more effective. Although votes are counted in a fair manner, gerrymandered districts, campaign finance disequilibrium and falsified stories can corrupt the democracy spirit. Practically, democratic backsliding meets with authoritarian resurrection resulting in hybrid regimes that are not democratic but liberal.
Causes behind the Trend
There are a number of root causes as to why these trends have been magnified. Among them, one can distinguish economic inequality and dissatisfaction. Globalization and change in technology have created winners and losers and many individuals have developed a feeling of economic insecurity and mistrust towards the old parties. Populist leaders capitalize on these complaints by promising them quick solutions that in the process lead to compromises of institutional checks. The need to have strong leaders is also led by security threats. Terrorism, migration crises, pandemics and geopolitical rivalries establish a state where states of emergency is a norm and civil liberties are restricted. Nationalist discourses also undermine the legitimacy of minority rights and international standards and the democratic agreement.
Another complexity has been brought by the information revolution. The digital era makes information more accessible to everyone but it also makes it easier to share misinformation, polarize and manipulate. Totalitarian regimes use the digital tools to create propaganda, and democracies find it difficult to control the digital media without compromising on free speech. Matters are aggravated by the institutional weakness and corruption. Democratic institutions are weak at their inception or when they lack sufficient resources, and they have to face a greater risk of capture by strong interests. Corruption scandals tinget the political parties leaving the way clear to outsiders who can run against the establishment only to weaken democracy further. The domestic regimes are also created by the international environment. In the Cold War, the superpowers supported client states irrespective of the mode of their rule. Nowadays the emergence of alternative authoritarian actors gives financial, technological and diplomatic aid to non-liberalist governments, lowering the external repression costs.
Regional Variations
The regional experiences explain the manner in which local conditions interplay with global drivers. In Europe and North America, populist movements have been seen to affect the courts in a negative way, media freedom and electoral practices, even in the mature democracies. In this case, democratic erosion more frequently starts with polarization and assaults on institutions, and not direct oppression. In Asia and Middle East, hybrid regimes combine both economic openness and political control, which is based on technology and nationalism to ensure legitimacy. In Asia, there are democratic regimes which are under pressure of the established elites and security agencies. Weakness of confidence in democratic institutions in Latin America has facilitated leaders who consolidate power due to corruption scandals, economic meltdowns and populist reactions. Some African states are under democratic consolidation and others are witnessing term limits in constitutions being bypassed and politicization of security forces. Unconditional external investment may also imply incumbency and diminish the incentives to reform.
Why It Matters
Backsliding and authoritarian resurrection is a global cumulative effect. Internally polarized democracies can more easily collaborate in common efforts like climate change, cybersecurity and migration. When the influential nations show no concern about the universal standards of human rights, human rights lose momentum. The networks of authoritarian regimes mutually support each other, dispensing censorship technologies and surveillance expertise. To the citizens the degradation of democratic principles is usually a slow process that is difficult to overcome. When independent institutions are captured, they can hardly be restored without a significant shake-up. It is much cheaper to prevent backsliding than costs that are incurred to restore democracy once it collapses.
Pathways Forward
These trends can be countered along certain possible avenues. Enhancing the democratic institutions like the independent judiciaries, professional civil services and effective watchdog agencies are the guardrails against authoritarian propensities. The grievances that give rise to populism can be mitigated by trying to address inequity and ensuring inclusive growth. New methods of digital governance to counter disinformation and privacy without diminishing freedom of expression are also required in democracies. Civic education and involvement can also be revitalized to make citizens aware of the democratic ideals and feel that they have a stake in the process of governance and, therefore, less vulnerable to authoritarian appeals. These efforts can enjoy the backing of international solidarity among democracies in terms of election monitoring, anticorruption projects and technology protection, but only with the support that is consistent and credible.
Conclusion
The conflict between authoritarian revival and democratic backsliding is a wider problem of governance and legitimacy of the twenty-first century. Authoritarianism is adjusting to the new realities, the fusion of the old forms of control with the new technologies and populist discourse. Weak institutions and polarized societies put the democracies at risk of detriment by the inner hand. But the result is not already determined. Citizens, journalists, judges and grassroots movements all over the world still protect democratic norms. Middle powers and international organizations are able to contribute to resilience of institutions and equitable economic systems. The most critical one is that democracy does not sustain itself. It demands lifelong renewal, responsibility and compliance to new challenges. Being able to identify the trends and the causes of current trends is the initial step to reverse them. The global tide can still be reversed away toward an authoritarian resurgence and instead towards democratic renewal, should the states and societies move early in strengthening institutions, embodying inequalities and adopting transparent digital governance.
